The Week Ahead: Highlights

US Preview

Fed Beige Book in Spotlight with Data Agencies Shut; CPI Rescheduled for Oct. 24

By Theresa Sheehan, Econoday Economist

With no end to the US federal government shutdown in sight, another group of important economic data reports will not be published or will delayed. These include the September data on the retail sales while CPI has now been rescheduled for Oct. 24. The Federal Reserve is not closed and will continue to publish its reports, or at least the ones that do not use data out of the federal statistical agencies. The same is true for private data reports. The BLS said it will not issue any other data apart from the September CPI until the shutdown ends.

Monday is a federal holiday in the US. Only government workers not on furlough will have a day off. Columbus Day/Indigenous Peoples Day is not widely observed outside of government. Stock markets will be open, although bond markets are closed. Most businesses outside the financial sector are open. Retailers use this three-day weekend to kickstart the holiday shopping season with early specials. Merchandise for Halloween will be prominently featured to clear out shelves before the end of the month. Thanksgiving and Christmas decor items are already on display and will be featured in some sales. Retailers will be anxious to capture consumer dollars now out of concern that worries about the economy and job security are going to cut into holiday spending.

The highlight of the week's data is likely to be the Fed's Beige Book on Wednesday at 14:00 ET. The Beige Book provides anecdotal evidence of economic conditions across the 12 district banks that is not far removed from events. The next Beige Book will cover the period roughly from late August through the first days of October. The prior Beige Book suggested some pick up from week activity that was related to the chaotic rollout of higher than anticipated tariffs. Consumers and businesses both reacted to the uncertainty with fear of higher future prices and disrupted supply chains. Some of that eased in the report released on September 3.

Those fears will be more pronounced again in the next report after the announcement of punitive tariffs on some large trading partners. Having a potential government shutdown on the horizon and then arriving will not help improve the situation for households and businesses. Spending is going to be front-loaded to avoid higher prices and scarcity in essential goods at the same time non-essential spending is expected to be curtailed.

The Beige Book will provide some insight into conditions in the labor market which is experiencing both a drop in labor supply - mainly related to falling numbers of immigrants available to hire - labor demand as business eliminate open positions and restrict hiring plans. Inflation and inflation expectations could show if Beige Book respondents are worried about tariff-related inflation becoming entrenched and how quickly the price increases are reaching consumers and businesses.

Asia-Pacific Preview

China/India Trade, Inflation Reports Ahead

By Brian Jackson, Econoday Economist

China and India both report inflation and trade data in the week ahead. Price pressures have been very weak in China, while the rerouting of exports through third countries has supported headline export growth despite higher US tariffs. Indian inflation has been low in recent months, mainly reflecting favourable monsoon rainfall patterns, and next week's data will likely have limited impact on the policy outlook.

Singapore will also report trade data after a big fall in exports last month, with the impact of trade tensions also likely to be evident in GDP data scheduled for release. Australia labour market & business confidence data will help shape expectations for the upcoming Reserve Bank of Australia meeting early next month.

The Week Ahead: Econoday Consensus Forecasts

Monday

China Merchandise Trade for September (ANYTIME)

Consensus Forecast, Balance of Trade: $98.3 B

Consensus Range, Balance of Trade: $96.0 B to $99.0 B

Consensus Forecast, Imports - Y/Y: 1.8%

Consensus Range, Imports - Y/Y: 1.3% to 3.5%

Consensus Forecast, Exports - Y/Y: 6.5%

Consensus Range, Exports - Y/Y: 5.2% to 8.0%

The surplus is seen at $98.3 billion in September versus $102.33 billion in August. Exports are expected to bounce back to show growth of 6.5 percent on year, up from 4.4 percent in August. Imports are seen at 1.8 percent versus 1.3 percent in August.

India CPI for September (Mon 1600 IST; Mon 1030 GMT; Mon 0630 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.5%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.3% to 1.9%

The consensus sees CPI down to a modest 1.5 percent increase on year in September versus 2.1 percent in August.

Tuesday

Germany CPI for September (Tue 1400 CEST; Tue 1200 GMT; Tue 0800 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 2.4% to 2.4%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.2% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.4%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.4% to 2.4%

The consensus looks for no revision from increases of 0.2 percent and 2.4 percent in the flash.

United Kingdom Labour Market Report for September (Tue 0700 BST; Tue 0600 GMT; Tue 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.7%

Consensus Range, ILO Unemployment Rate: 4.6% to 4.7%

Consensus Forecast, Average Earnings - Y/Y: 4.8%

Consensus Range, Average Earnings - Y/Y: 4.6% to 4.8%

The ILO jobless rate is seen unchanged at 4.7 percent in September from August. Average earnings including bonus are expected up 4.8 percent on year versus 4.7 percent in August.

Germany ZEW Survey for October (Tue 1100 CEST; Tue 0900 GMT; Tue 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Current Conditions: -73.6

Consensus Range, Current Conditions: -77.0 to -73.0

Consensus Forecast, Economic Sentiment: 41.1

Consensus Range, Economic Sentiment: 36.0 to 45.0

Current conditions expected to erode further to minus 73.6 in October from an already dismal minus 76.4 in September. Economic sentiment seen better at 41.1 in October versus 37.3 in September.

United States NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for September (Tue 0600 EDT; Tue 1000 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 100.5

Consensus Range, Index: 99.0 to 101.5

The index is expected nearly steady at 100.5 in September versus 100.8 in August and 100.3 in July.

Wednesday

China CPI for September (Wed 0930 CST; Wed 0130 GMT; Tue 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -0.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -0.2% to -0.1%

The consensus sees CPI recovering to minus 0.2 percent from minus 0.4 percent in August.

China PPI for September (Wed 0930 CST; Wed 0130 GMT; Tue 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -2.3%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -2.5% to -2.1%

Wholesale price deflation expected to ease to minus 2.3 percent from a nasty minus 2.9 percent in August.

France CPI for September (Wed 0845 CEST; Wed 0645 GMT; Wed 0245 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -1.0%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.1% to -1.0%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.2%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.1% to 1.2%

CPI expected down 1.0 percent on the month in September and up 1.2 percent on year, unrevised from the flash.

Eurozone Industrial Production for August (Wed 1100 CEST; Wed 0900 GMT; Wed 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -1.9%

Consensus Range, M/M: -2.5% to -1.6%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: -0.5%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: -0.7% to -0.1%

Output expected to fall back by 1.9 percent on month and by 0.5 percent on year in August after gaining 0.3 percent and 1.8 percent respectively in July.

United States CPI for September (Wed 0830 EDT; Wed 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, CPI - M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, CPI - M/M: 0.3% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 3.1%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 3.0% to 3.1%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.2% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.1%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 3.0% to 3.1%

The consensus looks for headline inflation up 0.4 percent on month and up 3.1 percent on year in September after increases of 0.4 percent and 2.9 percent on year in August.

Canada Manufacturing Sales for August (Wed 0830 EDT; Wed 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -1.5%

Consensus Range, M/M: -1.5% to -1.5%

As usual, forecasters agree with the Statistics Canada preliminary estimate of minus 1.5 percent on month in August from July.

United States Empire State Manufacturing Index for October (Wed 0830 EDT; Wed 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 0.0

Consensus Range, Index: -5.0 to 0.0

The consensus sees the index flat at 0.0 in October after modest contraction at minus 8.7 in September.

Thursday

Japan Machinery Orders for August (Thu 0850 JST; Wed 2350 GMT; Wed 1950 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.7%

Consensus Range, M/M: -2.5% to 3.1 %

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 4.7%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.5% to 6.5%

Japan's core machinery orders, a key leading indicator of business investment in equipment and software, are expected to post a slight 0.7% rise on the month in August for the first increase in two months after a 4.6% slump in July when orders for computers saw a pullback after recent gains. Demand for digitizing operations remains strong, however, amid widespread labor shortages.

Last month, the Cabinet Office maintained its assessment, saying, "Machinery orders are showing signs of a pickup."

From a year earlier, core orders, which exclude those from electric utilities and for ships, are expected to have climbed 4.7%, extending their run of year-on-year gains to an 11th straight month.

Australia Labour Force Survey for September (Thu 1130 AEST; Thu 0130 GMT; Wed 2130 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Employment - M/M: 20K

Consensus Range, Employment - M/M: 10K to 25K

Consensus Forecast, Unemployment Rate: 4.3%

Consensus Range, Unemployment Rate: 4.3% to 4.3%

The consensus looks for employment to recover by 20K in September after declining 5K in August. Unemployment is expected to rise to 4.3 percent from 4.2 percent in August.

United Kingdom Monthly GDP for August (Thu 0700 BST; Thu 0600 GMT; Thu 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.1% to 0.2%

Another tiny 0.1 percent increase is the call for monthly GDP.

United Kingdom Industrial Production for August (Thu 0700 BST; Thu 0600 GMT; Thu 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Industrial Production - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Industrial Production - M/M: 0.2% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, Industrial Production - Y/Y: -0.4%

Consensus Range, Industrial Production - Y/Y: -0.8% to -0.3%

United Kingdom Merchandise Trade for August (Thu 0700 BST; Thu 0600 GMT; Thu 0200 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, Balance: -£22.0 B

Consensus Range, Balance: -£23.0 B to -£22.0 B

The consensus looks for the trade gap at $22 billion again.

Italy CPI for September (Thu 1000 CEST; Thu 0800 GMT; Thu 0400 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: -0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: -0.2% to -0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Y/Y: 1.6%

Consensus Range, Y/Y: 1.6% to 1.8%

No revision expected from the flash.

Canada Housing Starts for September (Thu 0815 EDT; Thu 1215 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Annual Rate: 248K

Consensus Range, Annual Rate: 230K to 260K

Starts expected essentially flat from 246K in August.

United States Jobless Claims for Week 10/16 (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Initial Claims - Level: 229K

Consensus Range, Initial Claims - Level: 225K to 230K

Jobless claims seen holding pretty steady at 229K in the latest week.

United States PPI-Final Demand for September (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, PPI-FD - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, PPI-FD - M/M: 0.2% to 0.5%

Consensus Forecast, CPI - Y/Y: 2.6%

Consensus Range, CPI - Y/Y: 2.5% to 2.7%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - M/M: 0.2% to 0.4%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.7%

Consensus Range, Ex-Food & Energy - Y/Y: 2.7% to 2.9%

PPI-FD seen at 0.3 percent on month and 2.6 percent on year.

United States Retail Sales for September (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Retail Sales - M/M: 0.4%

Consensus Range, Retail Sales - M/M: -0.1% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles - M/M: -0.1% to 0.6%

Consensus Forecast, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: 0.3%

Consensus Range, Ex-Vehicles & Gas - M/M: -0.5% to 0.4%

Sales seen up 0.4 percent in nominal terms, which means flat in real terms as spending cools. Auto sales expected to provide a lift due to consumers front-running expiring EV sales incentives.

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for October (Thu 0830 EDT; Thu 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 7.5

Consensus Range, Index: -1.0 to 18.4

Growth seen slowing but still positive at 7.5 in October from 23.2 in September.

United States Business Inventories for August (Thu 1000 EDT; Thu 1600 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, M/M: 0.2%

Consensus Range, M/M: 0.0% to 0.2%

The consensus looks for a small 0.2 percent increase on the month.

United States Housing Market Index for October (Thu 1000 EDT; Thu 1400 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Index: 33

Consensus Range, Index: 32 to 34

Builder sentiment is not expected to recover, seen at 33 from 32 in September.

Friday

Eurozone HICP for September (Fri 1100 CEST; Fri 0900 GMT; Fri 0500 EDT)

Consensus Forecast, HICP - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, HICP - M/M: 0.1% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, HICP - Y/Y: 2.2%

Consensus Range, HICP - Y/Y: 2.2% to 2.3%

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - M/M: 0.1% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.3%

Consensus Range, Narrow Core - Y/Y: 2.3% to 2.4%

No revision expected from the flash at 0.1 percent and 2.2 percent.

United States Housing Starts and Permits for September (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Starts - Annual Rate: 1.315 M

Consensus Range, Starts - Annual Rate: 1.264 M to 1.350 M

Consensus Forecast, Permits - Annual Rate: 1.347 M

Consensus Range, Permits - Annual Rate: 1.325 M to 1.370 M

Starts expected to remain sluggish at 1.315 million unit rate in September versus 1.307 million in August.

United States Import and Export Prices for September (Fri 0830 EDT; Fri 1230 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Import Prices - M/M: -0.2%

Consensus Range, Import Prices - M/M: -0.3% to 0.3%

Consensus Forecast, Import Prices - Y/Y: 0.0%

Consensus Range, Import Prices - Y/Y: -0.1% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Export Prices - M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, Export Prices - M/M: -0.3% to 0.2%

Import prices seen down 0.2 percent on the month and export prices flat on the month.

United States Industrial Production for September (Fri 0915 EDT; Fri 1315 GMT)

Consensus Forecast, Industrial Production - M/M: 0.1%

Consensus Range, Industrial Production - M/M: -0.1% to 0.2%

Consensus Forecast, Manufacturing Output - M/M: 0.0%

Consensus Range, Manufacturing Output - M/M: 0.0% to 0.1%

Consensus Forecast, Capacity Utilization Rate: 77.3%

Consensus Range, Capacity Utilization Rate: 77.2% to 77.7%

Another exceedingly sluggish report with output expected up 0.1 percent and capacity utilization slack at 77.3 percent, down from 77.4 percent.